Conducting Democracy

There is so much to say about the experiences of past 2 months that I spent in India during Parliamentary elections there.  714 million voters in  India, world’s biggest democracy,  went to polls to elect 543 Members of Parliament out of 8070 candidates at over 828,000 polling stations. Its a huge exercise in this huge country. The one month long election process went through in a very systematic manner and a new government is now in place. 

Voting is not compulsory in India. Little less than 60% of the eligible voters voted. 

I am refraining here from commenting on how voters are or can be influenced/induced and what practices parties/candidates adopt – not to forget certain tainted candidates.

What I want to highlight here is the manner in which this immense and complicated exercise is conducted by the Election Commission of India.

When you think of millions of things that could go wrong in such a process and they didn’t, it is credit to the officials who conduct these elections. There is a lot of planning  that goes into smooth execution of the whole electoral process – thousands of civil servants,  police and paramilitary forces are deployed all across the country. India is not an easy country to conduct such a process- there are difficult terrains; a lot of people are illiterate; there are cultural, religious and linguistic differences  and in some far flung areas there are not even proper approach roads. To include all these people and to make sure that their opinion is counted is what democracy is all about. 

Here is a news story that salutes Indian democracy. A polling booth was set up and 4 officers deputed just for one voter to cast his vote in a remote area.

And there is this interseting video also that I found:

A Ponzi in a Gentleman’s game

The Stanford scandal expose has come as shock to the cricket lovers, including myself.

It was only a few months ago when his personal chopper landed at the Lords cricket ground in London – known as the Mecca of cricket- where he flashed his $20 million prize money for Twenty20 cup named after himself.

The game of cricket, born in the 16th century in England, has always been called a gentleman’s game.

The game has evolved over the past 400 years, so have the players and its management. Cricket was never a game with money it commands today.

Kevin Pietersen, the gutsy ex-English captain was recently bought for $1.5 million by a team in Indian Premier League (IPL), which has a 45-day annual season. Another IPL team has been valued at around $150 million. Cricket stars are larger than life figures in countries where the game is treated like a religion.

I often tell my non Indian investors and associates that if they want to do business with India, it does not matter if they don’t do their due-diligence or numbers right, its very important that they know Sachin Tendulkar (for those who don’t know, Sachin is God in India – the cricket superstar).

Despite this money, the game has by far retained its character to be a gentleman’s game. In 1980 when arch rivals India and Pakistan resumed their cricket relations by playing a symbolic match , ties were exchanged by team members at the start of the game.

So when super rich people like Stanford, who has been accused by SEC of a $8 billion financial fraud, put their dirty money in this game, questions are bound to be asked. Cricket fraternity should do its own professional due-diligence when accepting moneys for the game so that it continues to remain a game of the gentleman and not of a Ponzi. Latest news reports suggest that Stanford has gone missing while depositors line up out side his banks…

The Dubai Bubble

As far as I recollect, I think, I first visited Dubai in 1994. I still very clearly remember the place a friend who was working in an MNC there, arranged for me to stay. A studio apartment, in the centre of Bur Dubai. I also remember very clearly that the boundary of city ended where it starts today! I also remember taking long walks across the city – from one end to another.

Since 1994 I have been to Dubai several times each year. I have seen it expand and evolve all these years, complimented its leadership but have always wondered what was the business model of Dubai.

Have also looked at buying residential property in Dubai past several years but was put off each time by the unrealistic prices that have prevailed there all these years. I was often given a 24-48 hour deadline by brokers to say yes to a property deal as there were buyers waiting with ready cash! I refused and re-iterated that one doesn’t buy even potatoes or tomatoes without touching them, how could I buy a property by just seeing some casual and unauthenticated photographs?

All this while, contrary to my expectations Dubai property prices kept rising and my friends there kept telling me how much their net worth has multiplied in the process.

I also have had issues regarding setting up business in Dubai including in its much hyped free-zones. I somehow always felt that Dubai was an over-hyped place creating in the process architectural landmarks, man made islands, super luxury resorts, a world class airlines and infrastructure – a transit hub.  The only cheap things being gas and Indian food.

As it appears now, Dubai has debts in excess of its GDP and the rationale being given is that the value of underlying assets is many times more than the external debt. In the last two-three months, having given a specific budget and location preference for a property and having even responded to specific listings on a popular real estate portal, I have yet to get a real offer. So how logical is the value of the underlying assets still remains a big question and when for much lesser budgets better deals are available in the US and UK, why Dubai?

Part 2:Of auditors, analysts and rating agencies

Captain Sally, hero of the US Airways plane that landed in the Hudson River, told Barak Obama in a telephonic conversation that he and his crew were just doing their job.

Obama replied to that saying “If everybody did their job ……. we’d be in pretty good shape.”

If only all these auditors, analysts and rating agencies would also listen to this!

Its all about doing your job the right way and we don’t need a Sally or Obama to tell us this.

Of auditors, analysts and rating agencies

Whether it was Enron, Worldcom and now Lehman, Madoff  in the US,  Hyundai Motor in South Korea, Livedoor in Japan, Parmalat in Italy or now Satyam Computers in India – someone, somewhere failed in their duties to protect investors who lost their monies and employees that lost their jobs.

Am not even touching the aspect of governance, transparency, ethics and the roles of CEOs/CFOs here.

The Enron scandal even led to the collapse of its auditors Arthur Andersen. SEC settlement with two Arthur Andersen partners in case of Worldcom was also much debated. Last year PwC had a $225 million class-action case settlement with investors of Tyco International. There have been several other small audit fraud lawsuit settlements. Does it just stop here?

Auditors, analysts and rating agencies are all directly and indirectly supposed to be working to protect the interests of shareholders and lenders of a company. Respective accountabilities and punishments for defaults have to be in place and no one who betrays this trust should go scot-free.

Relevant apex institutions need to take an urgent look at their reporting and disclosures norms.

The Clinton Donors

The Clinton foundation has published on its Web site, the list of its 205,000 donors who have given nearly $500 mn :

http://www.clintonfoundation.org/contributors

It could be an interesting read for many! 

Contributors greater than $25,000,000
The Children’s Investment Fund Foundation
UNITAID
$10,000,001 to $25,000,000
AUSAID
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Stephen L. Bing
COPRESIDA-Secretariado Tecnico
Fred Eychaner
Frank Giustra, Chief Executive Officer, The Radcliffe Foundation
Tom Golisano
The Hunter Foundation
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
The ELMA Foundation
Theodore W. Waitt
$5,000,001 to $10,000,000
Government of Norway
Nationale Postcode Loterij
Haim Saban and The Saban Family Foundation
Michael Schumacher
The Wasserman Foundation

Here are some more interesting names who are reported to have made contributions to the Clinton foundadtion:

AIG, Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America Foundation, Freddie Mac, General Motors, Goldman Sachs,Credit Suisse,Charles Schwab Corp, Bloomberg LP

Blackwater Worldwide

Foundadtions of George Soros, Walton family, David Geffen and Alan Solomont

Celebrities and corporate barons like Barbara Streisand, Steven Spielberg, Paul Newman, Carly Simon, Chevy Chase, Rupert Murdoch, George Steinbrenner, Jerry Yang, Frank J. Biondi, Terry Semel, Nasser Al-Rashid, Denise Rich,  Tom Golisano, Richard Mellon Scaife, Frank Giustra, Theodore Waitt,Tom Golisano,  Eli Broad, Gilbert Chagoury, Victor Pinchuk.

State affiliates from Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Taiwan, Brunei, Jamaica, Tenerife in the Canary Islands

Friends of Saudi Arabia, Dubai Foundation, China Overseas Real Estate Development and the U.S. Islamic World Conference

Some Indians: Lakshmi Mittal, Politician Amar Singh, Suzlon Energy, Confederation of Indian Industry 

WOW!

The Madoff Pyramid

The “System Failure” has found another victim in the alleged $50 bn Madoff scandal.

People are now asking how such a high profile person , once a Nasdaq chairman, could manage to run, now labelled, illegal Ponzi schemes under the very eyes of  the regulators. But for the financial market collapse it would perhaps have carried on for ever!

Since early 90s, when Charles Ponzi was associated with originating the most innovative of  fraudulent investment schemes offering unusually high returns over a short period out of funds received from new investors, hundreds of such schemes have been exposed in many ways. But the sheer size and reach of the alleged Madoff Scheme seems to engulf the Who’s Who of global banking and investment sector. Banks after banks are coming out with amount of their exposures to Madoff ! (lists so far at FT and Reuters). New victims are still pouring in.

This also again shows that GREED has no limits.

If regulators failed to notice the alleged Ponzi schemes being run by Madoff, the high profile professionally run institutions, hedge funds and sophisticated wealthy investors also failed to notice any wrong doing at Madoff, in anticipation of more than normal returns being offered to them. What happened to all those due-diligence and ‘Know Your Client’ norms which are a nightmare for genuine investors when they go to open accounts with these very institutions?? 

The nature and scale of financial scandals that has been unfolding since the sub-prime crisis is a significant pointer that not only the systems in place in developed economies totally failed to protect the investors on one side, but also caused irreparable damage to their own financial mechanisms. 

This has now been spreading like a virus all across the world with no effective vaccine. This hole has become so big that something like this ($50bn) seems like a drop in the ocean!

Going Gets Tough…

Most of us woke up with following news headlines:

• US car bailout plan collapses. Markets plunge, dollar slums. Millions may lose jobs 
• US advisory firm headed by a former Nasdaq chairman, charged with $50 bn fraud, probably the largest fraud in the history.
• BankAm to cut 35k jobs

Its just not stopping.  All previous bailout and stimulus packages also seem to just disappear in thin air with each new crisis emerging by the day.  

A tough day ahead !

Good Money After Bad

With trillions of dollar already gone into bail out and stimulus packages, global economies are trying hard to fight back.

There is a basic principle of doing business which is to never throw good money after bad.  Move on. Put good money to better use. Does this same principle not apply in today’s crisis management?

Money being pumped into the system belongs to the tax payer.

Are the key beneficiaries and CEOs going to put back their bonuses back into the company in its testing times? After all the policies that benefited them till a few months ago have backfired. Some one out there has to own up the responsibility in each of these companies.

The governments should also spell out what conditions and accountabilities are being attached to these bailouts and rescue packages.  This good money needs to be protected well.

Sports Marketing

At a time when US car makers are aggressively lobbying for car industry bailout package comes the news that Honda has pulled out of Formula 1 racing. Honda was one of the biggest sports spenders during 2008. The F1 team is up for sale.

Not too long ago Tiger Woods lost General Motors endorsement deal – sudden end to a decade old relationship.

Despite the general belief that entertainment bucks the trends of recession, its obvious that sports marketing is facing the heat and sports’ sponsors are cutting down on these costs in desperate attempts to save their businesses.

There is mixed feeling that media spending declines during recessions or it grows at a slower pace than in boom times. And sports marketing spend, in particular, is generally linked to the state of an economy.

Most sports spenders have claimed that they are passionate about sports they sponsor or endorse. Passion doesn’t mix with profits or losses of business. Sports and entertainment go hand in hand. You don’t stop making and watching movies in times of recession. You don’t stop playing and watching sports in times of recession either.

The Clintons

What is it about the Clinton family that keeps them on the scene?

Eight glorious and controversial years in the White House,
The Clinton Foundation which has had over 200,000 donors,
NY Senator,
1st American woman who had a great run at the Primaries,
nominated as Secretary of State,
And now talks of Bill Clinton seeking NY senate seat being vacated by Hillary…
and possibly Hillary as US Presidential candidate in 2016…
Not to forget the Arkansas governorship before Bill Clinton became US President…

And to top it, both are best selling authors!

Bill Clinton is a man of great intelligence, that is an acknowledged fact. He is a man who has a grip over every aspect of global politics, economy and social issues. No one doubts his ‘political genius’ and, he was only the second US President to face impeachment proceedings.

Bill Clinton was born in Hope, Arkansas on August 19, 1946 (Leo). Hillary was born in Chicago, Illinois on October 26, 1947 (Scorpio). I leave it to the believers of star sign compatibility to find any similarities and answers here!

Both studied and practiced law.

I recollect having read what Jay Leno is reported to have said about the popularity of Hillary Clinton, “Women admire her because she’s strong and successful. Men admire her because she allows her husband to cheat and get away with it”.

Well…. in 2001, at the end of his presidency Clinton reported a historic surplus of $559 billion… and in fiscal 2008 the U.S. budget deficit hit a record $455 billion.

I am trying to find some answers here…

Latest Obama Quotes

“If we serve as well as they do [soldiers, diplomats, inteligence officers...], we will protect our country and promote our values”

“I am a strong believer in strong personalities and strong opinions…”

“There is no monopoly of power or wisdom in either party. Together, as one nation, as one people, we can shape our times instead of being shaped by them. Together, we will meet the challenges of the 21st century not with fear, but with hope.”

And here is the latest quote from Bush!!!

“Presidents — one of the things about the modern presidency is that the unexpected will happen.”

The Foreign Hand

I can not talk about anything but India. The terror that lasted about 60 hours and took nearly 200 precious lives including police officers and foreign nationals has left all shocked and seeking lots of answers. Many have lost their loved ones and are still trying to accept that reality but they all are very very angry and frustrated. 

India’s Prime Minister said in his address to nation that those behind these coordinated attacks in Mumbai were based “outside the country”, so did the Indian Foreign Minister. The press reports about interrogation of the sole surviving terrorist who is being interrogated in Mumbai point fingers to terror networks operating in Pakistan who are believed to have planned this attack and trained these militants. 

Indians have short memory and are used to forgiveness but the fact is that India has never acted with enough force and conviction to fight this terror. Here we can indeed blame the system. Whether it was the 1999 proxy war in Kargil or the 2001 attack on Indian parliament things die down after an initial hoopla. 

Let’s hope its different this time !! 

Indian public should stand up and demand implementation of a series of drastic measures to eliminate terror networks operating out of Pakistan. Its no more a question of ‘providing evidence’ to the government in Pakistan but time for a severe action. This attack on India’s pride, dignity and sovereignty can not go unpunished. This is the least we can do for those who lost their lives during this Mumbai siege.

An all new face of Terrorism

Its 45 hours into the standoff that still continues in Mumbai, India after terror first struck prime locations in commercial capital of India. 

The sheer manner and extent of havoc what just a few armed and well trained terrorists have  caused is shocking to say the least.

When it all started, it appeared to be a case of indiscriminate firing but what has now emerged is that it was a planned terrorist attack executed with military precision.

No words can describe the grief over loss of innocent lives especially of the top brass of Indian police force, including the head of Anti Terrorist Squad. 

The way the Indian elite commandos have handled the rescue operation in the massive hotels and other densely populated areas deserves commendation. They had no intelligence feedback, no blueprints of the buildings and to what level of hostility they will face from militants holding hostages.

The unfolding events over the past 45 hours have proved one thing that this is a new face of global terrorism.

Quantum of Solace

Citibank has been rescued. Citibank is (was) perhaps the symbol of economic prosperity and pride of the wealthiest. 

This could mean a complete and utter collapse of the financial markets, even if there was something left standing there. The last nails in the coffin, or is there more to come?

This also means that no financial institution today can claim to be in the secure territory.  Obviously one can’t continue to blame the system. People played certain games, took certain risks or, let’s call it ‘bets’, and have landed up in a total mess. 

The ripples just don’t seem to be stopping here.

Analysts have been fast changing their ‘forecasts’.

Investment Gurus/Pundits have no set ‘predictions’ to make.

Banks like Barclays host their super rich clients at exclusive locations at Lake Como, advising them how to protect their wealth in these troubled times of financial crisis. 

What next ? A “little bit of comfort” perhaps – this is how James Bond’s latest title has been defined  …

No “Quantum of Solace” yet as things seem to be getting from bad to worse.

Quote of the Day

A friend just sent in this:

“The financial situation at the moment is so bad that women are now marrying for love”

“Hand of God”

48 year old Maradona is back at centre stage of football as coach of Argentinean team, an appointment that surprised many. That too when the team has been struggling to regain lost glory.

This super star footballer  has perhaps been embroiled in more controversies than any other celebrity. Recovering from doping punishment in 1991 and his drug addiction Maradona fought  his sicknesses , a heart attack and obesity and even had a stomach stapling operation couple of years ago.  There were times when you would feel sorry to see him on TV unable to walk or talk properly, for especially those who watched him score those goals in 1986.

Maradona fought it all and then hosted a TV talk show in 2007.

Whether it was the now (in)famous “Hand of God” or what Maradona says in his autobigraphy “Hand of Diego”, Argentina was the 1986 FIFA world football champion.  And Maradona has again proved that only the fittest can survive the test of times. It has been a good sight to see him run around and train his team past few days. 

Lessons to learn !

Citigroup axes 50k jobs

• Fresh round of cuts takes total job losses to 73,000

These headlines spread this Monday like the California forest fires, possibly causing similar devastating effect across the world.

Whether we blame this also on the ‘System’ or the clever use of certain unwritten laws, the fact remains that the people suffering most are either the working class or mid tier businesses. 

Banks and large corporations across the globe are being bailed out.

Of extreme relevance here is a recent statement from HSBC hitting out at the government’s bail-out plan for the bank’s rivals, saying competitors had taken risks and been punished by the markets – only to be rescued by the government… 

Chief executive Michael Geoghegan also raised concerns about the $4,500bn (£2,850bn) state-backed rescue of western banks. “There is no question that guarantees have been given to failed managements,” he said. “I hope these guarantees don’t last too long because they may create the wrong type of behaviour by managements in those banks.”

Who will bail out the thousands who have lost their jobs in the past 6-8 months for no fault of theirs? Who will bail out mid size and small businesses across the world which are taking the heat and may not survive the crisis? Who will bail out millions of stock market investors who invested their hard earned savings ?

For these banks who probably made trillions of dollars in boom times, losing some billions may not be a big deal. Same could apply to the billionaire club. These classes are probably immune to the crisis in financial markets. But for millions of homes that have gone jobless it is a question of life and death.

Is it also the time to talk about self regulation in Financial sector ? 

System Failure ?

“Noting that we are in the worst financial crisis since the 1930s … the salient feature of the current financial crisis is that it was not caused by some external shock… The crisis was generated by the financial system itself.”

This is George Soros in his recent testimony ( see video )at the US House of Representatives where top hedge fund managers were questioned as to who was to blame for America’s financial crisis. 

Soros is no stranger to financial market controversies. Who can forget the 1992 Sterling crisis when he made over US $1billion by short selling the Sterling.

Its probably human psychology to blame the ‘system’ for every thing gone wrong.

I don’t have the credentials to write about the sub prime crises , credit crunch etc… and so much has been written about the current recession and events and reasons leading to this situation that we have probably stopped thinking what caused it and are engaged in our own way to fight out of this crisis. 

Its easy to blame the system for everything that goes wrong.

But, the essence is, its all about Greed.

Why can’t we ever say NO ??

When I was child, I once read an article written by my academician father on the captioned subject in Hindi language.  During my graduation, I translated that in English for our student magazine. That was just for fun.

But it has been only past few years that I have actually begun to understand and somewhat learnt the relevance and real meaning of this subject.

Its definitely not easy to say NO.

Whatever the circumstances, even in everyday life, for example if someone wants to borrow your beloved camera or even seek a small loan or in profession where people may ask you to deliver what may not be viable in the first place or you may not be capable of delivering that at all or it may be in the hands of a third person outside your control.

Being generous you may say yes to all requests, favours, help, tasks and then also engage the help of others who are needed for the person to execute the task. But slowly you will land yourself in sticky situations where people know you recommend because of your generosity and not because of the person’s merit and hence they will stop taking you seriously.

It needs lot of courage and will to be able to accept that you will not be able to deliver something being sought from you. So its better to say NO, now, than regret it later on when you don’t fulfil a commitment. Believe me, its rare and cherished quality to be able to say NO.

In a way, its being honest with yourself.  As they say you shouldn’t fool yourself.

So should we all be ones who can say NO – “Yes we can”

Creative Minds at Work

Advertisement quality in India has always  been top class. Very creative and innovative. No wonder they win so many awards at Cannes Lions and several other international ad competitions. 

I am not starting to write this to talk about how and what all goes into creating a beautiful and high impact advertisement.

In the recent past, I have come across two interesting advertisements in Europe.

One is airing on BBC world news. Its an HSBC advertisement which has used a popular song from a very old Indian Movie. There is no way any viewer would not be attracted to the ad soon at it starts. And I can bet you will see through the whole advert which has been filmed in India. 

Second is an advertisement on Channel 2– Popular 24 hour free to air Hollywood channel in the Middle East & Western Europe. Again, suddenly in break times, you hear a popular modern Indian film song. This is a Close-up tooth paste advert.  

Few years ago there was a Nestle advert also that was aired in Europe which had a Indian film song as the main theme and became very popular. Our non-Indian friends often referred to that when we  met.

So what does it mean ? 

Perhaps here is the answer:

I was recently with a very famous and highly respected Indian filmmaker. I asked him if  Indian producers take their ‘product’ to market watchers (like they do in Hollywood), to show the script to distributors to get their feedback about its marketability before it goes on the floor. I was told that a film is not a product. To Quote “it takes life out of you”. I immediately agreed and apologised. 

Changing Times

Since 4th of November 2008, every one is talking about CHANGE.

CHANGE seems to be the magic word these days. Whatever the context, whatever the geographical location.

What is CHANGE ? It would be nice to have a definitive answer.

One thing puzzles me though. Although a dictionary would tell you that CHANGE is “a difference in circumstances”, why do we always think of it as a positive thing? 9/11 was also a CHANGE.   Wasn’t it?

CHANGE denotes HOPE and that’s why when we think of change we think for the better.

One very dear friend gifted me a book sometime back “Speeches that changed the world” – A compilation of over 100 of the most influential speeches ever made.  And for starters – Barrack Obama’s now famous speeches are not included as it’s a 2005 publication. However, George Bush’s “Axis of Evil” and Tony Blair’s “Reasons For Invading Iraq” are in there.

In these fast ‘changing’ times, as we are seeing for few years now; terrorism, war on terror, subprime crisis, credit crunch, depression, recession – common man has very little choice. What then he expects is to look forward to a changed scenario and what he wants is a political messiah who could bring those changes.

I quote here some lines from this book. These are by Oliver Cromwell on 20th April 1653 (note the year) when he told the members to leave. “It is not fit that you should sit here any longer! You have been sat too long here for any good you have been doing lately. You shall now give place to better men ! … You call yourselves a Parliament. You are no parliament … “.

Some governments could do with that change.

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